December 14, 2025
Volume 12, Issue 51
Weekly Recap
of the major domestic equity indexes rose and hit all-time highs last week, supported by the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive interest rate cut and commentary from central bank officials that most interpreted as less hawkish than feared. The small-cap Russell 2000, which can be more sensitive to interest rate moves than its large-cap peers, performed best, adding 1.19 percent, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 1.05 percent gain. The S&P MidCap 400 rose more modestly, while the S&P 500 hit an all-time high earlier in the week before pulling back sharply on Friday to more than erase its weekly gains.
Meanwhile, renewed concerns regarding technology stock valuations and questions around whether elevated spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure will pay off weighed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which fell 1.62 percent last week. These concerns came back in to focus after enterprise software company Oracle — which has been a recent beneficiary of AI enthusiasm – announced quarterly revenue results that fell short of consensus estimates on Wednesday, while the company also issued guidance pointing toward a substantial increase in capital expenditures.
The Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee concluded its final meeting of 2025 on Wednesday and, as was widely expected, announced that it would lower its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) to the 3.50–3.75 percent range. Notably, however, three policymakers dissented for the first time in six years, with two officials favoring no change to the policy rate and one preferring a 50-basis-point (0.5 percentage point) cut. The central bank’s policy statement also included language that has previously signaled a pause in policy actions, noting that policymakers “will carefully assess incoming data” to determine “the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference offered mixed messages, though ultimately appeared to be less hawkish than some were anticipating. While Mr. Powell noted that the fed funds rate is “within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value” and that policymakers are “well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves,” he also referenced concerns about “significant downside risks” to the labor market. The central bank also announced that it will “initiate purchases of shorter-term U.S. Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.” Potentially adding to concerns around the labor market, the Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending December 6 totaled 236,000, an increase of 44,000 from the prior week’s revised level. This was the highest weekly total since early September. On the other hand, continuing claims declined by 99,000 to 1.838 million, the lowest since mid-April.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings in October rose to a five-month high of 7.670 million, up from 7.658 million the prior month. Layoffs rose to 1.854 million from 1.781 million, while hires fell to 5.149 million from 5.367 million. October’s quits rate fell to the lowest since 2020, a signal that workers may have less confidence in leaving their jobs and finding employment elsewhere. The performance of U.S. Treasury securities was mixed across maturities last week. Shorter-term yields generally decreased – particularly after the Fed announcements on Wednesday – while longer-term yields largely finished the week higher, as the yield curve’s steepening trend continued. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed last week yielding 4.19 percent.
Market Monitor
A full listing of market performance data is available here.
DQYDJ.com (“Don’t Quit Your Day Job”) offers helpful investment calculators here, including one that shows total returns for individual stocks. Koyfin.com provides reams of data on individual stocks, including the ability to track total return — and just about anything else — over time.
In the News
Markets cheered the Fed’s third straight rate cut (even if Oracle killed the vibe), but the details show an increasingly split central bank. The “no” votes were Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid, who supported maintaining the current rate, and Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran – an appointee of Mr. Trump confirmed in September – voted for a 50-basis-point cut. It was the most “no” votes for a rate-cut decision since September 2019. Fed Chair Jerome Powell brushed off the discord, but it hints at trouble in 2026, when a new chair may find consensus even harder to marshal. The 25-point trim didn’t satisfy President Trump, who called Mr. Powell a “deadhead” and who spent time huddling with potential Powell successor Kevin Warsh. Mr. Powell is a Grateful Dead fan, but the president was likely not referring to his musical taste. But don’t expect Mr. Powell, whose term as chair expires in May, to be a lame duck in his final months.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said U.S. consumers are “doing fine” in the short run, but warned that inflation is “not going down.” Dimon also criticized Europe’s regulatory structure for driving out business opportunities and innovation.
President Trump announced that he will allow Nvidia to sell its H200 chips, the second most powerful AI chip model made by the company, to “approved customers” in China, with a portion of the revenue going to the government.
How Warren Buffett changed investing forever. Michael and Susan Dell’s $6.25 billion donation to child savings accounts fits a trend: giving with no strings attached. In some ways, it’s a bipartisan philosophy.
Charts of the Week
I found the following articles to be of note. Some may be of interest only to advisors while others are aimed more broadly. You may hit paywalls below; many can be overcome here.
- Here’s What Your Retirement Spending Rate Should Be in 2026 (Benz & Giles)
- What Retirees Need to Know About Required Minimum Distributions (Ed Slott)
- My Favorite Investment Writing of 2025 (Nick Maggiulli)
This is the best thing I’ve read recently; this is the best market-related thing. The most interesting. The most important. Airport lounge wars. Inside an Ashland, Virginia liquor store, a raccoon kicked off his holiday season merry-making by chugging whiskey and scotch before passing out next to the porcelain god. Don’t miss the video. A video of a bear in a holiday parade. 2025’s best books.
Tree farms in the United States cut down 14.5 million Christmas trees in 2022, according to the most recent USDA data. Of those 14.5 million trees, half came from just six counties, with Clackamas County, Oregon, responsible for a nation-leading 2,088,169 trees alone. At any given time, there are 300 million Christmas trees growing on 15,000 farms across the country. Michigan, North Carolina, and Oregon are the biggest producers, with these three states boasting an aggregate of 400 square miles of land devoted to Christmas tree production.
“Volatility is noise. The short-term trader bets on the noise; the long-term investor listens to the signal.” ~ Peter Bernstein
Securities and advisory services are offered through Madison Avenue Securities, LLC, a member of FINRA and SIPC, a registered investment advisor. This report provides general information only and is based upon current public information we consider reliable. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment or any options, futures, or derivatives related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment, or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Diversification does not guaranty against loss in declining markets.
