July 13, 2025
Volume 12, Issue 28
Weekly Recap
The major domestic equity indexes closed modestly lower last week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite holding up best. Tariff news dominated the headlines, but market reaction was muted compared with previous tariff announcements, as market players doubt President Trump’s resolve after his repeated on-again/off-again announcements. There was little difference in performance between large-caps and small-caps, while growth stocks held up modestly better than value. Traders have begun to follow airline earnings announcements as something of a bellwether of consumer strength. Delta Air Lines provided a supportive full-year 2025 earnings outlook – after withdrawing its guidance in the wake of the early-April tariff announcements – and said that travelers are returning to the skies. The supportive outlook from Delta lifted shares of U.S. airlines broadly. In single-stock news, NVIDIA hit the $4 trillion market capitalization threshold for the first time, helping put the “mega” in the so-called Magnificent Seven group of mega-cap stocks.
President Trump announced 25 percent trade levies on major trading partners South Korea and Japan, as well as tariffs at varying levels on other countries, including Canada, South Africa, Thailand, and Malaysia. He also said that his administration would dramatically increase Brazil’s tariff to 50 percent in a move linked to the country’s legal proceedings against former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro.
In addition to the country-specific tariffs, President Trump also announced an upcoming 50 percent tariff on copper. This triggered an immediate spike in U.S. copper futures contract prices, while benchmark copper futures traded outside the U.S. were little changed to lower.
In a slow week for economic data releases, investors digested Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s mid-June policy meeting. The minutes showed some disagreement among members of the Federal Open Market Committee about the direction of monetary policy. While “most” policymakers said that they anticipate cutting rates this year, two stated that they would be open to rate reductions as soon as the late-July FOMC meeting. On the other hand, some committee members said that they don’t anticipate cutting rates at all in 2025. Stocks showed little reaction to the FOMC minutes. U.S. Treasury paper rallied last week following the release of the FOMC minutes before losing ground to finish the week modestly lower, pushing yields a bit higher. The Treasury Department’s auction of new 10-year U.S. Treasury notes on Wednesday saw healthy demand, helping ease recent concerns about the attractiveness of longer-maturity paper as the U.S. fiscal situation deteriorates.
Market Monitor
A full listing of market performance data is available here.
DQYDJ.com (“Don’t Quit Your Day Job”) offers helpful investment calculators here, including one that shows total returns for individual stocks. Koyfin.com provides reams of data on individual stocks, including the ability to track total return — and just about anything else — over time.
In the News
Most members of the FOMC think tariffs will drive inflation higher, meeting minutes reveal. President Trump disagrees and wants lower rates right away.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last Sunday that countries that fail to make a trade deal with the United States by August 1 will face the steep tariff rates announced by President Trump in early April. Bessent downplayed the announcement as a shift away from Trump’s original July 9 deadline for such deals, essentially telling CNN’s Dana Bash that countries should view the month of July as a window to work toward a deal. “If you want to speed things up, have at it,” Mr. Bessent said. “If you want to go back to the old rate, that’s your choice.” Speaking to reporters Sunday evening, however, Mr. Trump said tariff letters would begin going out this week. “We’ll have most countries done by July 9 – either a letter or a deal.” Leaders of several BRICS nations concluded an annual summit in Rio de Janeiro on Monday. The bloc – which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other emerging economies – issued a joint statement condemning the sweeping imposition of tariffs and recent attacks on Iran, though it refrained from singling out either President Trump or the United States by name. Notably absent from the gathering was Chinese President Xi Jinping, who had attended every BRICS summit since assuming office in 2013. On Sunday, Mr. Trump threatened to impose a 10 percent tariff on any country that aligns itself with the “Anti-American policies of BRICS,” a characterization members of the bloc have since disputed.
The concentration in the S&P 500 has returned to extreme levels, with the top 10 companies accounting for 40 percent of the index’s market capitalization and a record-high share of earnings.
AQR makes a case for international and emerging small cap stocks.
Nvidia became the first company in history to achieve a $4 trillion market valuation last week (see the chart below), cementing its status at the top of the global financial market food chain. What is “financial independence”?
Charts of the Week
I found the following articles to be of note. Some may be of interest only to advisors while others are aimed more broadly. You may hit paywalls below; many can be overcome here.
- Investment Quarterly (Q2 2025)(Madison Avenue Securities)
- 11 Things I’ve Learned as a Financial Planner (Elliott Appel)
- The emotional and time value of advice (Vanguard)
- The Best Companies to Own: 2025 Edition (Margaret Giles)
This is the best thing I’ve read recently. The most important. The most ironic. Anti-commodities. Oops. Older. Persecution. Coyotes in Central Park. Illusions. Critical of critical theory. Party on, Garth. Meritocracy. If you like Italian food. Cliché. Hero.
Since 2000, home prices in the U.S. have risen +218 percent, while in the U.K., they’ve risen 252 percent, in Canada they’ve gone up +334 percent, and in Australia, they’ve rocketed northward of 390 percent. In Japan, however, the value of homes has declined -23 percent over the same period..
“If we were all as wise as we should be, we would have no stories to tell.”
~ Freeman Wills Crofts
Securities and advisory services are offered through Madison Avenue Securities, LLC, a member of FINRA and SIPC, a registered investment advisor. This report provides general information only and is based upon current public information we consider reliable. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment or any options, futures, or derivatives related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment, or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Diversification does not guaranty against loss in declining markets.
