November 24, 2024
Volume 11, Issue 47
Weekly Recap
The major domestic equity indexes moved higher last week, recovering some of the previous week’s losses despite continuing uncertainty around the incoming Trump administration’s policies and escalating geopolitical tensions stemming from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Gains for the week were relatively broad-based, with smaller-cap indexes outperforming large-caps and an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 outpacing its more familiar capitalization-weighted counterpart. With a relatively light economic calendar last week, much of the focus was on NVIDIA’s third-quarter earnings release on Wednesday. Shares of the chip giant ended the week little changed as traders appeared generally satisfied with the results, although the company’s guidance for the fourth quarter was lighter than some analysts expected. Relatedly, the utilities sector outperformed as commentary on NVIDIA’s earnings call seemed to drive optimism around rising artificial intelligence-driven demand for clean energy. Communication services stocks lagged, driven in part by a drop in shares of Google parent Alphabet following reports of the Justice Department filing a proposal to break up the internet search giant.
On Thursday, the Department of Labor reported an unexpected drop in initial jobless claims for the week ended November 16, 2024, which seemed to help drive positive sentiment toward the end of the week. Applications for unemployment benefits fell to 213,000, a decline of 6,000 from the prior week and the lowest number since April 2024. While the number of continuing claims reached a three-year high of 1.91 million, some of this increase was attributed to secondary effects of the aircraft machinist strike at Boeing, which has since been resolved.
Moreover, traders seemed encouraged by the National Association of Realtors’ report of existing home sales in October, which rose year-over-year for the first time since July 2021. The upbeat report cited additional job gains, continued economic growth, and stabilizing mortgage rates as factors leading to the growth in housing demand.
Much of the macroeconomic focus remained on the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year in December, as traders look for clues around the pace of interest rate cuts. Speaking Wednesday, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated that “the disinflationary process is continuing” and that she sees the appropriate path of short-term interest rates to be downward. However, she noted that the magnitude and timing of rate cuts should be driven by inflation and labor market data. Yields at the front-end of the yield curve drifted slightly higher while most of the intermediate-to-long-end was little changed. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed last week yielding 4.41 percent.
Market Monitor
A full listing of market performance data is available here.
DQYDJ.com (“Don’t Quit Your Day Job”) offers helpful investment calculators here, including one that shows total returns for individual stocks. Koyfin.com provides reams of data on individual stocks, including the ability to track total return — and just about anything else — over time.
In the News
U.S. workers are changing jobs less frequently, easing pressure on the hot labor market and giving the Fed scope to lower interest rates. In the week ending November 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims was 213,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 217,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 221,000 to 221,500.
NVIDIA reported earnings last week: excellent again.
The Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2024 is out.
Sales of previously owned homes rose 3.4 percent in October from the previous month, according to a Thursday report from the National Association of Realtors. Home sales were also up 2.9 percent year-over-year in October, the first yearly increase in three years. The jump in home sales coincided with a dip in mortgage rates in September. The wealthy don’t want to retire. The middle class can barely afford to. We need a better vision for old age.
Charts of the Week
I found the following articles to be of note. Some may be of interest only to advisors while others are aimed more broadly. You may hit paywalls below; many can be overcome here.
- 12 New Findings on Spending in Retirement (Michael S. Fischer)
- Retire Without Regrets (Harvard Business Review)
- For Retirees in Their 60s, the Move That Adds Years to a Nest Egg (Anne Tergesen)
This is the best thing I read or heard recently. The worst (but the article is great). The smartest. The saddest. The loveliest. The best thread. The best news. The best pen. The most absurd. Swatting.
Americans stocking up for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner will see a dip in their grocery bills for the second year in a row. The 39th annual American Farm Bureau Federation Thanksgiving dinner survey finds that the classic feast for 10 will run you $58.08, down 5 percent from last year. However, this is still 19 percent higher than five years ago.
“This Thanksgiving, remember to be grateful for the gift we’ve all received: mostly positive markets over a long enough period to benefit from.”
~ Jason Zweig
Securities and advisory services are offered through Madison Avenue Securities, LLC, a member of FINRA and SIPC, a registered investment advisor. This report provides general information only and is based upon current public information we consider reliable. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment or any options, futures, or derivatives related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment, or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Diversification does not guaranty against loss in declining markets. Madison Avenue Securities, LLC | 13500 Evening Creek Drive N, Suite 555 | San Diego, CA 92128 US
