September 14, 2025
Volume 12, Issue 38
Weekly Recap
Most major domestic equity indexes moved higher last week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 16–17 monetary policy meeting, at which the central bank is widely expected to lower short-term interest rates. Enthusiasm surrounding the ongoing artificial intelligence boom, supported by Oracle’s announcement of a substantial guidance increase amid several large new AI deals, also helped lift stock prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all notched new record highs last week, although the Dow and S&P both pulled back modestly in a relatively quiet trading session on Friday. The Russell 2000 also advanced, logging its sixth straight week of gains.
Consumer price growth accelerated in August, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. The agency’s consumer price index data showed headline prices rose 2.9 percent year-over-year in August, an increase from July’s reading of 2.7 percent. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 3.1 percent over the same period.
The BLS also reported that its August producer price index, a separate measure of inflation that gauges price increases at the wholesale level, unexpectedly decelerated to a 2.6 percent year-over-year increase versus 3.1 percent in the prior month. On a core basis, wholesale price inflation accelerated modestly to 2.8 percent from 2.7 percent in July.
While recent inflation readings have remained above the Fed’s long-term target of 2 percent annualized inflation, investors are largely expecting the central bank to cut short-term interest rates at its upcoming meeting in response to recent data that have indicated a weakening labor market. In the wake of the prior week’s lackluster August jobs report, the Labor Department reported Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ended September 6 totaled 263,000, the highest level since October 2021. Meanwhile, the BLS released U.S. payroll revisions for the one-year period ended March 2025, showing that 911,000 fewer jobs were created compared with initial estimates.
The economic calendar wrapped up on Friday morning with the preliminary results for the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for September. The index reading showed a decline in overall sentiment from the prior month, dropping to 55.4 from 58.2 in August, although it remained above the lows for the year that came in April and May. Consumers noted “multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation,” while trade policy remained a focal point, according to Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. Expectations for inflation in the year ahead were unchanged from August at 4.8 percent, while long-run inflation expectations increased for the second consecutive month to 3.9 percent. U.S. Treasury securities generated positive returns last week, with long-term yields generally decreasing while shorter-term yields were little changed. Economic data releases, notably Thursday’s highly anticipated CPI report, drove yield curve movements throughout the week. Several Treasury auctions also saw strong demand, reinforcing ongoing appetite for U.S. government debt.
Market Monitor
A full listing of market performance data is available here.
DQYDJ.com (“Don’t Quit Your Day Job”) offers helpful investment calculators here, including one that shows total returns for individual stocks. Koyfin.com provides reams of data on individual stocks, including the ability to track total return — and just about anything else — over time.
In the News
The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday released preliminary benchmark revisions of job market data for the last year through March, which showed that the total number of workers on payrolls is likely to be revised down by 911,000. Government data from before the revision indicated that the U.S. economy created roughly 1.8 million jobs in the 12 months preceding March, around twice what it now believes to be the actual number. The report adds weight to the claim that the U.S. is experiencing a weak jobs market and makes it more likely that the Fed will cut interest rates during its September meeting.
Consumer prices were up 2.9 percent in August from a year earlier, the Labor Department announced Thursday, returning to the highest level since the start of the year. That was up from 2.7 percent in July and a recent low of 2.3 percent in April, but in line with expectations from forecasters, who have expected businesses to steadily pass along higher costs from tariffs on imported goods and materials. At the same time, signs of weakness in the labor market are accumulating, illustrating the tightrope that the Federal Reserve now walks as officials consider cutting interest rates next week. U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in August amid a compression in trade services margins and mild increase in the cost of goods, suggesting that domestic firms were probably absorbing some of the tariffs on imports.
U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb decided Tuesday that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook can remain in her position while she fights President Trump’s attempt to fire her for alleged mortgage fraud. The court granted a temporary restraining order blocking Dr. Cook’s removal after finding that Mr. Trump had not stated a legally permissible cause, noting that Fed governors cannot be fired over policy disagreements and that the president’s allegations appeared pretextual. Dr. Cook, the first black woman to serve on the Fed board, will continue participating in upcoming meetings, including the September 16-17 session in which a quarter-point rate cut is expected. Dr. Cook’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, said the ruling reaffirms the importance of safeguarding Federal Reserve independence from illegal political interference, while the White House maintains President Trump lawfully removed Cook for cause.
The Senate Banking Committee voted 13-11 on Wednesday to advance President Trump’s Federal Reserve Governor nominee – current chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran – to a Senate confirmation vote, which Republican senators hope to hold by September 15, according to Politico. If confirmed, Miran would fill the seat vacated by former Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, who submitted her resignation on August 8. All 24 senators on the committee voted along party lines.
Americans’ view of the U.S. economy declined modestly in August as anxiety over a weakening job market grew for the eighth straight month. The Conference Board announced Tuesday that its consumer confidence index ticked down by 1.3 points to 97.4 in August, down from July’s 98.7, but in the same narrow range of the past three months.
The Supreme Court announced Tuesday it will decide whether President Trump exceeded his authority by imposing sweeping tariffs under emergency powers, scheduling oral arguments for the first week of November. The case follows an appeals court decision that Mr. Trump overstepped his presidential powers when using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs without congressional approval, finding that the Constitution assigns tariff authority exclusively to Congress. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that if the Court decides against the administration, it could trigger massive refunds of $750 billion to $1 trillion already collected, potentially causing significant economic disruption. The tariffs remain in effect while the Court considers the case, with the administration arguing that blocking them would derail critical negotiations with foreign trading partners and threaten broader U.S. strategic interests.According to Jeff Sommer, Social Security is the most valuable thing most Americans have. Citigroup is entrusting BlackRock with tens of billions of dollars of clients’ investments in a move that will close the bank’s only remaining in-house asset manager and outsource more of its wealth unit’s offerings.
Charts of the Week
I found the following articles to be of note. Some may be of interest only to advisors while others are aimed more broadly. You may hit paywalls below; many can be overcome here.
- How to Keep This Hot Stock Market from Melting Your Retirement Dreams (Jason Zweig)
- The (False) Dichotomy of Investing Before and After Retirement (Maurer & Welch)
- Why Are Emerging Markets Investors Removing Their China Exposure? (Sheehan & Arrieta)
This is the best thing I’ve read recently. The ugliest. The wildest. The saddest. The most amazing. Danger.Saved. Competitive massage. Will AI choke-off the supply of knowledge?
Let’s suppose you wanted to stream every single NFL game. September would set you back $84, By October, the new ESPN and Fox would lower that to $74. Then, in December, you’d need Netflix and NFL+ to watch the games. In total, that’s $328 for all the regular season games, but that is not all the games. Adding the Sunday Ticket for $522, then the playoffs and lock stock and barrel if you want to consume all the possible football this year, you’re talking $935 in total.
“The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.”
~ Peter Lynch
Securities and advisory services are offered through Madison Avenue Securities, LLC, a member of FINRA and SIPC, a registered investment advisor. This report provides general information only and is based upon current public information we consider reliable. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other investment or any options, futures, or derivatives related to such securities or investments. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, other investment, or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities or other investments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Diversification does not guaranty against loss in declining markets.
